Determination SPI and aSPI for Agricultural Drought Characterisation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v14i7.1971-1978.8843Keywords:
Drought Index, DrinC, Trend analysis, Standardized Precipitation Index , AgricultureAbstract
Drought is a complex climatic phenomenon that severely affects both the natural environment and socioeconomic structure. Drought indices are of great importance as one of the primary indicators in monitoring climate change and managing drought. Drought is one of the most important natural threats to agriculture. Without water, there is no production; Food security cannot be ensured without production. Therefore, the fight against drought is of great importance both environmentally, economically and socially. The aim of this study is to calculate the Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI) values as well as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) commonly used in drought analysis, to determine the relationship between the two indices and to examine the trend of the indices. In the study, monthly precipitation data for the period 1980-2021 of Ardahan, Iğdır and Kars precipitation stations in the Aras basin were used. To test the homogeneity of precipitation data, XLSTAT, a professional data analysis add-in that offers statistical analysis developed for Microsoft Excel, was used. Pettitt Test, Buishand Test, Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and Von Neumann Ratio Test were used. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), one of the most widely used indices worldwide, was calculated with DrinC software on a time scale of 3, 6 and 12 months. The Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI), a modified version of SPI that more accurately describes the amount of water that can be used efficiently by plants and is based on replacing total precipitation with effective precipitation, was also calculated using DrinC software on a 3, 6 and 12-month time scale. This study evaluates the effectiveness of each index in representing the effects of drought on agricultural production using both SPI and aSPI. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), an innovative graphical method, was used for trend analysis of drought indices. Trends have been determined. It is thought that the index trend results will play an important role in the measures to be taken against drought, which is a result of climate change, and in the measures to be taken for agricultural irrigation.
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